EMERGENT CAUSALITY FRAMEWORK (ECF)

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ABSTRACT

The Emergent Causality Framework (ECF) is a fractal causal structure that describes how simple components interact to produce complex systems with novel behavior in a nested, permeable causal web.

The ECF provides a pragmatic exploratory structure that can support competing theories that make more detailed claims. It is fundamentally intersubjective, informed by competing theories to create a structure that accommodates diverse exploration within a single structure.

The ECF is divided between core claims referencing a generic emergence causal mechanism (ECM) and specific theories around what that causal mechanism may be.

Current potential ECMs are chaotic determinism, quantum effects, emergent intelligence, or transcendent intelligence. The ECF allows us to explore which of these contributes to emergence on a case-by-case basis, whether as individual or combined mechanisms. Different mechanisms may apply at different orders of reality.

Outside of the chaotic determinism model, the ECF also acknowledges that the other models may create systems that are continuously deviant from deterministic expectations, or they may be discrete deviations after which the system continues to operate according to a deterministic default, but with parameters altered by the discrete event.

By providing a central structure, the ECF allows competing theoretical perspectives to align debate and discovery constructively.

CORE STRUCTURE

Within the ECF, emergence occurs when apparently deterministic components contribute to new, unpredictable behaviors though some sort of emergent causal mechanism.

Emergence leads to the development of complex causal webs, where feedback loops of emergent behavior interact with other loops of either higher or lower order interactions within a permeable causal web.

Higher order causal systems may emerge containing causal components at different tiers in the order hierarchy, without these components needing to have local proximity to one another. This means system boundaries are relatively defined but not absolute, allowing for multi-directional and non-local causal influence across different causal hierarchies throughout the causal web.

Causal webs are approximated by causal models, which seek to establish a holistic approximation of the causal webs within any complex system, distinguishing between local causal influences and global causal influences.

When extrapolated to the scale of the entire physical universe, the resultant compound causal web is simply referred to as Web, and is functionally indistinguishable from pantheistic interpretations of God advanced by the likes of Tesla, Einstein, and Laozi. 

While Web is a scientifically justified concept, the framework doesn't require pantheistic interpretation. The clarification is made only to highlight the nature of any theistic ECMs.

CONSIDERATIONS FOR MODELING

As an agnostic acknowledgment, Web contains a currently incalculable number of base components and systems, never mind the causal webs of interactions between them, all that would need to be fully approximated with a causal model to get meaningful predictability on a universal scale. 

The ECF states that there are only certain ECMs that even offer the theoretical capacity for 100% predictability, one requiring a theoretically impossible amount of compute and the other being a sort of transcendental divine communication. That is to say, the only expectation for universal predictability that can be reasonably expected is divine intervention.

Even on the scale of just the human body, the system is too complex and chaotic to fully predict all interactions from start to finish. 

Recognizing this, the ECF encourages the development of causal models with active pattern recognition and dynamic model correction that can acknowledge emergent events and self-correct accordingly as deviation occurs. Improving models and predictability relative to the present moment is more critical than the establishment of a start-to-finish understanding of any given causal chain.

EMERGENT CAUSAL EVOLUTION

Emergence is the process by which component interactions within sufficiently complex systems create feedback loops with the components causing the behavior by some emergent causal mechanism (ECM).

The theoretical breakdown is this:

~ simple components are isolated to exhibit simple behavior that is predictable

~ simple components are added to a relatively closed system, causing the complexity to increase to the point where complex interactions occur, which are interactions that cannot be predicted by isolated component behavior

~ emergence is defined by the establishment of a feedback loop between the complex behavior and the simple components creating it; this is referred to as cyclical causality and is a key property of emergence

~ once established, this emergent feedback loop becomes its own causal system that can be considered a component within the original system, which may or may not still have non-emergent component interactions with the emergent system, creating compound causal reactions

~ while simple components may be operating in a localized system state of emergent behavior, the components themselves are still part of the broader system, establishing a complex behavior profile with dominant traits shifting as system conditions do

These following considers are non-deterministic and therefore incompatible with true reductionism:

~  random, conscious, or otherwise emergent events occur, they alter the deterministic default for the duration that the event is occurring, at the end of which a new deterministic default is established until another random or conscious event occurs

~ a single emergent event may produce a causal loop that produces countless novel phenomena per the dictates of the deterministic behavior of the new causal loop, giving the appearance of continuous deviation from the deterministic default, when only the single event was truly emergent

This establishes the general evolution of systems of infinite complexity emerging within our reality, composing it entirely. This appears to include the layers of which the human experience exists, where we seem removed from determinism and instead dictated by chaos, randomness, and/or intelligence. 

CAUSAL WEBS

Causal web is a theoretical term used to refer to the distributed influence of all causal relationships within a complex system. It is a fractal structure that exists as a permeable hierarchy, with systems and components on different levels potentially having causal influence on each other. 

This means that when a complex system has complex systems as its components, its causal web integrates the other causal webs, so any node in any of the webs can potentially interact with any other node.

When modeling causality, we must investigate whether the interaction was due to the local causal web or a global one.

Causal webs are represented as such by complex causal models (CCMs).

Causal webs are dynamic, meaning that the current state dictates the current interactions only, the the conclusion of which, the state will be changed, potentially changing the interactions during the next feedback cycle.

Causal webs may be represented by a deterministic default, meaning that there are default expectations for the system unless it is influenced by conscious or random activity.

"WEB"

The ECF advances a "participation principle", which states that if a phenomena is observably occurring in reality, then it is a part of a complex causal web. Any non-observable phenomena, whether directly or abstractly, is epistemically irrelevant.

This causes us to consider Web, the causal web for all reality considered as a complex system.

Reality as a Complex System

~ Everything we perceive operates within interacting causal webs (e.g., ecosystems, economies, cognition, physics).

~ These systems exhibit emergence, feedback loops, and self-organization, all hallmarks of complexity.

The Problem of Unobservable Simplicity

~ If something existed outside the scope of complex systems, it would either:

~~ Interact with complex systems, making it part of the network.

~~ Not interact at all, meaning it remains undetectable and irrelevant to our observable reality.

Conclusion: Everything We Recognize is Complex

~ If something has causal impact, it contributes to a complex system by definition.

~ If it does not, it might as well not exist from an epistemological standpoint.

Since it can be assumed that all causes are part of a causal web, and everything we perceive is the result of caused interactions, then we can assume that reality itself has its own causal web, which receives the capitalization treatment of "Web".

Functionally, this Web aligns with pantheistic conceptions of God as an all-encompassing causal structure.

The questions from here aren't whether this Web or interpretation of God exists, they are:

1: does Web have its own awareness and agency? 

2: how does global Web causation influence emergent awareness within localized systems, including our own?

3: do all emergent interactions need to satisfy the fundamental parameters and current conditions of Web?

4: is it fair to rule out a transcendent consciousness, whether it be a result of Web as a whole or just a system greater than any one human or humanity as a whole?

This is explored further on the Web page.